Who Will Follow Shields?

Senator Shields’ Successor Still In the Shadows
Potential candidates weigh options

As summer starts to heat up at a rapid pace, potential candidates looking to replace Charlie Shields as the next State Senator of the 34th district are beginning to weigh decisions on whether or not to run for what will be an open seat in 2010. Shields, a Republican from St. Joseph and currently President Pro Tem of the Missouri Senate, will be term-limited. The district includes both Platte and Buchanan Counties in their entirety. In what is traditionally a moderate district, leaning half Republican/half Democrat, this race could prove to be one of the hottest contested races of the next election cycle in the state of Missouri. So far several candidates from both parties have toyed with the idea of starting campaigns.

On the Republican side, it appears that State Rep. Rob Schaaf of St. Joseph and State Rep. Jason Brown of Platte City will be facing off in an August 2010 primary. Both are serving their last terms in the Missouri House due to term limits. Schaaf is currently the only candidate to have officially announced his candidacy. He has had a campaign committee in place since last year. Schaaf’s 28th House district represents all of Andrew and parts of Buchanan Counties, of which only a small portion is represented by the 34th district senate seat he is seeking to hold. On the other hand, Brown’s House district includes a large portion of Platte County, all of which is part of the 34th senate district. As members of a powerful majority in the House, look for each to try to distinguish themselves during the 2010 legislative session.

The Democratic field is not as clear as their counterparts from across the aisle. Several candidates have been heavily weighing decisions to run. They include State Rep. Martin Rucker from St. Joseph, State Rep. Ed Wildberger of St. Joseph, and State Rep. Jason Grill of Kansas City. Wildberger could be considering a run for a position within Buchanan County government because of current office holders deciding not to seek re-election, but has not yet made any clear indications.

If either one of the two state representatives from St. Joseph were to announce their candidacy for the State Senate, they would be considered early favorites over Rep. Jason Grill of Kansas City in southern Platte County because of Buchanan County’s stronger Democratic base compared to Platte County. Grill has a reputation for being more of a moderate Democrat compared to Rucker and Wildberger, which would be a strong advantage to him should he win a potential primary and be a candidate in the general election.

If both of the Democrats from St. Joseph were to run for the seat, it would almost be certain that Grill would toss his hat into the ring as well, expecting to reap the benefits of a split Buchanan County vote. With all three potential candidates heavily weighing the decision, each candidate appears to have their respective electoral and demographical advantages.

Keep in mind that August primary elections are also popular times for municipal and county ballot initiatives to be voted on. This could change the outlook of the race by encouraging a higher voter turnout in certain parts of the district, particularly if it were to be in St. Joseph or Kansas City. Look for either a gentlemen’s compromise or primary battle to be established by early this fall.

Nonetheless, you can expect candidates to start criss-crossing the district over the next 16 months trying to cover as much ground as they can in order to meet as many people as possible. Areas they won’t be able to reach personally will be contacted through direct mail pieces and television/radio advertisements, which will all be paid for by donations that could equal up to $500,000. Folks, get ready because it’s almost campaign season again…